NFL Football Statistics: Teams Ranked by Wins Against Point Spread (ATS) from Best to Worst in Past Seasons
Published by Ion Saliu; last update November 2, 2017.
Reports created by FrequencyRank, sports betting statistical software.
The statistical reports rank the NFL teams by their frequency against the spread (ATS). The teams are listed in descending order, from the best to the worst teams. The reports show the number of hits ATS; i.e. amount of games in which that particular NFL team was a winner ATS or in compliance with the odds.
A statistical report as such is not of much use. The short-term ranges of analysis offer stronger tendencies, in accordance to the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). For far better results, run the special lottery software SkipSystem:
The reports that follow were created in January 2012 using a special edition of the software. It is different from the version listed above, included in the 2011 edition of BrightS, integrated sports betting software.
• Current NFL format: 32 teams playing from 13 to 16 games per week, 17 weeks a year (except for 1993 and 2001, each with 18 regular season games). The postseason is not included in this type of analysis. The results or data file (NFL.ODS in the current version of the program) must have exactly 15 winning teams per line. If a week has 16 games, the winning team of the NFL Monday Night Football game was discarded. When an NFL week has 14 (or fewer) games, the user must add the word OPEN to have 15 entries per line. Valid for the 2011 edition of BrightS.
The currently public NFL.ODS file has results from the 1992 season to Week 5 of the 2006 NFL regular season.
Moreover, I updated the data file to work with 16 games per week. The new file name is NFL-16.ODS. The new file consists of 16 football teams per line, or ATS results. I created also a special program to work with the new format. The results start at the beginning of the 1992 NFL season. The file ends with the 2011 regular season. The Monday Night Football games are accurately included for the period 2004-2011.
I included a special text file: NFL-ATS-16.ODS. It shows when an NFL regular season ends. It helps to point out the beginning and the ending of various reports. You should record the ATS results in this file; then, copy and paste to NFL-16.ODS. I updated also the auxiliary file holding the correct team names: TEAMS-16.NFL. The only difference is Buccaneers instead of Bucs in TEAMS.NFL.
The updated version of the statistical software is named NFLRank16. Select the renamed function F = NFL Football, 16 Teams.
The registered members are encouraged to download the files listed below. Look for that 16 in the file names to work with the new format. The complete updates should be finalized in time for the new (2012) NFL regular season. Left-click to download the EXE file(s). If you left-click the other file types, they'll open in your browser. If you right-click those files, select Save target as in the ensuing context menu. Make sure the files keep their original names.
The following statistical reports rank the NFL football teams by their wins against the point spread (ATS). The teams are listed in descending order, from the highest frequency (“hottest”) to the least winning teams (“coldest”). The reports show the number of hits: Number of wins against the spread (ATS). By and large, the ATS wins are close to number of straight wins.
The percentage parameter represents the frequency as the percentage of wins considering number of teams and number of games per week. Each football team has a so-called bye week per regular season. Therefore, each team plays only 16 games in a 17-week regular season. The winning percentages take into consideration the bye week.
The ATS is a statistical parameter that is indicative of the parity of the National Football League (NFL). In turn, parity assures fairness, which leads to a high level of competitiveness.
ATS implies that the teams should meet expectations. That is, the better teams are expected to win by a margin of victory or point spread. But the bookies select such a point spread that can go both ways. That would be the equalizer for the underdog. In other words, the chance is 50-50 from the bettors' perspective. One can bet either way with an equal chance to win — theoretically. In fact, the sport books rely on it!
The statistical reports do show equal chance as far as the ATS percentages are concerned. Virtually all teams should have 50% win-rates every year and also over any period of time (number of seasons). Reality shows that around half of the NFL teams go above the 50% win margin. Those are, in general, the good teams in that period of time. The other half of the NFL teams are below the 50% success level! They are considered bad teams in the respective range of analysis.
Shorter ranges of analysis (e.g. the 5-year period) show a more accented bias. The better teams tend to be successful over shorter periods of time. The longest statistical ranges (e.g. the 20-year period) diminishes the bias. The winning percentages of the successful NFL teams get closer to the 50% mark! The better teams in previous seasons get older and don't get the best draft picks. The parity rules!
There are differences in the history of the league. The number of professional football teams is variable. Some football teams have been around since the very beginning. A few teams are new. Yet, other teams disappeared, and then came back to life!
The 5-season statistical report has the highest degree of accuracy, followed by the 10-season range of analysis.
You will see in the reports pretty good rankings for a few teams who had… losing seasons! One fact of life in the NFL is pride. There teams who are considered “bad”. Such teams know they will have losing seasons. Yet, they fight to beat the point spread! The players believe they achieved something if they were not blown away by the better team!
The NFL Teams Ranked by Wins Against The Spread (ATS)
5-Year Report: 2011 - 2007
Weeks Analyzed: 85
Expected Wins: 50.00%
Rank Team Hits Percentage
1 PACKERS 50 62.50%
2 FALCONS 49 61.25%
3 PATRIOTS 47 58.75%
4 SAINTS 46 57.50%
5 GIANTS 44 55.00%
6 TITANS 44 55.00%
7 49ERS 43 53.75%
8 COLTS 43 53.75%
9 TEXANS 42 52.50%
10 PANTHERS 42 52.50%
11 BROWNS 41 51.25%
12 RAVENS 41 51.25%
13 LIONS 41 51.25%
14 STEELERS 41 51.25%
15 EAGLES 41 51.25%
16 CARDINALS 41 51.25%
17 CHARGERS 40 50.00%
18 BILLS 40 50.00%
19 DOLPHINS 39 48.75%
20 REDSKINS 38 47.50%
21 JETS 38 47.50%
22 SEAHAWKS 38 47.50%
23 RAIDERS 37 46.25%
24 BENGALS 37 46.25%
25 CHIEFS 37 46.25%
26 BEARS 37 46.25%
27 JAGUARS 35 43.75%
28 COWBOYS 35 43.75%
29 VIKINGS 35 43.75%
30 BUCCANEERS 34 42.50%
31 BRONCOS 33 41.25%
32 RAMS 30 37.50%
The NFL Teams Ranked by Wins Against The Spread (ATS)
10-Year Report: 2011 - 2002
Weeks Analyzed: 172
Expected Wins: 50.00%
Rank Team Hits Percentage
1 PATRIOTS 100 61.73%
2 CHARGERS 91 56.17%
3 PACKERS 90 55.56%
4 RAVENS 89 54.94%
5 FALCONS 87 53.70%
6 COLTS 87 53.70%
7 SAINTS 87 53.70%
8 EAGLES 85 52.47%
9 CHIEFS 85 52.47%
10 GIANTS 84 51.85%
11 TITANS 83 51.23%
12 BILLS 82 50.62%
13 PANTHERS 82 50.62%
14 STEELERS 81 50.00%
15 BEARS 80 49.38%
16 REDSKINS 78 48.15%
17 BROWNS 78 48.15%
18 SEAHAWKS 78 48.15%
19 JAGUARS 78 48.15%
20 TEXANS 78 48.15%
21 COWBOYS 78 48.15%
22 LIONS 77 47.53%
23 JETS 76 46.91%
24 BENGALS 76 46.91%
25 DOLPHINS 76 46.91%
26 BRONCOS 76 46.91%
27 CARDINALS 75 46.30%
28 49ERS 75 46.30%
29 VIKINGS 73 45.06%
30 BUCCANEERS 70 43.21%
31 RAIDERS 64 39.51%
32 RAMS 64 39.51%
The NFL Teams Ranked by Wins Against The Spread (ATS)
20-Year Report: 2011 - 1992
Weeks Analyzed: 341
Expected Wins: 50.00%
Rank Team Hits Percentage
1 PATRIOTS 176 54.83%
2 PACKERS 172 53.58%
3 EAGLES 170 52.96%
4 CHARGERS 169 52.65%
5 STEELERS 168 52.34%
6 TITANS 168 52.34%
7 CHIEFS 167 52.02%
8 FALCONS 167 52.02%
9 GIANTS 165 51.40%
10 SAINTS 165 51.40%
11 BRONCOS 164 51.09%
12 BEARS 158 49.22%
13 COLTS 158 49.22%
14 BILLS 157 48.91%
15 49ERS 155 48.29%
16 COWBOYS 155 48.29%
17 JETS 154 47.98%
18 DOLPHINS 154 47.98%
19 LIONS 153 47.66%
20 SEAHAWKS 151 47.04%
21 BUCCANEERS 151 47.04%
22 BENGALS 151 47.04%
23 VIKINGS 151 47.04%
24 REDSKINS 148 46.11%
25 PANTHERS 147 45.79%
26 CARDINALS 147 45.79%
27 RAVENS 140 43.61%
28 JAGUARS 139 43.30%
29 RAMS 138 42.99%
30 RAIDERS 134 41.74%
31 BROWNS 129 40.19%
32 TEXANS 78 24.30% = started in 2002
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