Parpaluck NFL Betting Systems: Point Spread, Odds Compliance, Gambling Streaks

The Parpaluck NFL Betting System started while I was visiting Romania. The Transylvanian city I have lived in was full of sport betting parlors (probably as many as drinking places!) I wanted to try their trustworthiness by betting on a few NFL games. I found parlors that offered betting the American way: point spread. I chose a couple of teams with winning records as favorites. Read the ATS football betting strategy created by Ion Saliu (royalty name: Parpaluck) in Europe.

This unique system is founded on compliance with the odds. For example, the New England Patriots are favored to beat the Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points. If the Patriots win by fewer than 8 points, or the Chiefs win the game, each team records a loss (L-). If the Patriots win by 8 or more points, each team registers a win (W+); i.e. both teams complied with the odds.

Please pay attention to the subtlety of this method. A team can lose the game straight-up but is credited with a win W or +. Or, a team wins the game straight-up but it records a loss L (or the minus - sign) — IF winning by fewer points than the spread. Think of yourself as a bettor. You bet on a game by going with the favorite team to cover the spread. The favorite won the game but by fewer points that the spread. You lost the bet. In this case, both teams failed you. Therefore, you mark each team with an L in your record-keeping log. In this case, the two teams did not comply with the odds.

You can see in the next section how the NFL teams fared regards non-/compliance with the odds in the 2017 season. For example the Baltimore Ravens record shows this string of WL in the first half of the season: L W L W L L W W. It is the ideal W+/L- record to bet on! The longest streak is 2 consecutive L or 2 consecutive W. Another team, the Buffalo Bills, had a streakier first half: 3 consecutive L and 3 consecutive W. The WL results in compliance with the odds are up-to-the-date on this Web Page:

• NFL National Football League: Schedule, Games Results, Scores, Stats

• If the red dot of a game shows +, you add W to both teams that played the game. If the sign is minus (–), you give both teams an L. Of course, instead of WL you can write down strings of +-.

The Parpaluck NFL Betting System applies the famed limited-step Martingale in blackjack or roulette.

So, how do you bet? It is all about trend reversal.

• Method #1: Bet after 2 consecutive W (WW) that the trend will end.
  • For example, the Chicago Bears started W W L. So, in week 3, you bet that the game Chicago plays will end up in an L: The teams will not comply with the odds. The WW streak ended immediately. The Pittsburgh Steelers were favored to win the game by 7 points. Pittsburgh did not cover the spread; actually, Chicago won the game! Again, you "voted" (bet) against the spread — and you were correct in your prediction.
  • In another case, the Atlanta Falcons started W W W L. So, in week 3, you bet that the game Atlanta plays will end up in an L: The teams will not comply with the odds. The WWW streak did not end immediately as the Falcons covered the spread in week 3. Accordingly, in week 4 you doubled your bet that the trend will end. The Atlanta Falcons were favored to win the game by 8 points. In reality, Atlanta did not cover the spread in week 4. Again, you "voted" (bet) against the spread — and you were correct in your prediction. But you had to double your bet and wiped off the previous loss.
  • You stop your Martingale betting after 3-4 steps. It must be very rare to encounter a team with 7 consecutive W. I remember only one case when the New England Patriots had a perfect regular season and 8 consecutive W. After that, they had more L than W in the second half of the season (regarding compliance with the odds).

• Method #2: Bet after consecutive L (LL) that the trend will end.
  • For example, the Arizona Cardinals started L L W. So, in week 3, you bet that the game Arizona plays will end up in a W: The teams will comply with the odds. The LL streak ended immediately. The Arizona Cardinals were expected to lose the game by at least 3 points. Indeed, that's what happened (the Cowboys won 28-17). Again, you "voted" (bet) with the spread — and you was correct in your prediction.
  • In another case, the Buffalo Bills started W L L L W. So, in week 4, you bet that the game Buffalo plays will end up in a W: The teams will comply with the odds. The LLL streak did not end immediately as the Bills lost the game by fewer points than the spread in week 4. Accordingly, in week 5 you doubled up your bet that the trend will end. The Buffalo Bills were expected to lose the game by at least 3 points. In reality, Buffalo lost by more points than the spread in week 5. Again, you "voted" (bet) in favor of the spread — and you were correct in your prediction. But you had to double down and thusly wiped off the previous loss.
  • You stop your Martingale betting after 3-4 steps. It must be very rare to encounter a team with 7 consecutive L. Even losing teams have shorter L streaks in rapport to compliance with the odds).

• Method #3: Expect WW after 2 single W.
  • Axiomatic one, this is a more sophisticated tactic. As per my Facebook post, I apply this betting method with better NFL teams; i.e. teams with winning records in the previous year and especially in the current season.
  • For example, the New England Patriots started L W L L W L W W. I saw two single W in weeks 2 and 5 (W followed by L). I wait for another W: It came in week 7. In week 8, I doubled up my bet that New England will register another win W — compliance with the odds, that is. Indeed, I was correct in my prediction. Indeed, the New England Patriots won the game AND covered the spread.
  • You stop your Martingale betting after 3-4 steps.
  • I never chase 3 or more consecutive W or L. The probability is lower and the pattern is streakier.

Traditional NFL Betting: Against The Spread (ATS)

We can also record the results against the point spread. There are differences, as you notice in the second line of each NFL team. Usually in this traditional betting method, gamblers have a favorite team or two. They mostly bet on that favorite team. But what if the team is bad year after year, after year? Methinks it is a losing proposition.

In this betting ATS system, we improve our chances if betting on losers to lose and betting on winners to win. If a team had a bad record in the previous season, we should expect the trend to continue. We can see here teams in that category: Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers. We bet aggressively against them; we expect them to lose early and often. When they win now and then, we follow up the win with a double bet on L (loss).

If a team had a good record in the previous season, we should expect the trend to continue. We can see here teams in that category: New England Patriots, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons. We bet aggressively on them; we expect them to win early and often. When they lose, we follow up the loss with a double bet on W (win). As in the previous case scenario, we shouldn't encounter more than 3 consecutive adverse results.

In this ATS type of betting, trends are visible after 5-6 games. Some teams improve dramatically, while other teams collapse. There is also the important issue of injury. Betting should be adjusted accordingly.

For teams in the middle of the road, we can still apply successfully doubling the bet after 2 consecutive wins/losses. We only pay attention to the very bad and the very good teams. So, if a team is really bad, don't bet higher after 2 consecutive losses. In fact, we should expect more losses to follow. The opposite is true in the case of very good teams: They don't record too many L in a row.

In the first half of the season, all teams try their best to win as many games as they can. Making the playoffs is the main goal. For that reason, the ratio W/L is closer to 50–50. In the second half of the season, the divide between good teams and the bad ones widens. The good teams play better; the bad teams are hopeless and give up the season. The ratio now is biased towards W. The best teams and the worst teams show stronger tendency toward compliance with the odds. The results against the spread reflect what is expected of said teams.

It is also important to select a reputable bookie and stick with that organization. Usually, Las Vegas types of bookies are very close as far as the odds are concerned. Avoid illegal betting... it is, well, illegal... and not to be trusted (dangerous too!)

Arizona Cardinals

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L
Against The Spread
L L W W W L L W W L L W L L L W

Atlanta Falcons

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W L L W W L L L L W L W W W L
Against The Spread
L W L L L W L W L L L L L W L

Baltimore Ravens

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W W L L W L L L L W L L L L L
Against The Spread
W L W W L W L L L L W W L L W L

Buffalo Bills

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W L W L L W W W L L L L L L W
Against The Spread
L L W L W W L L L W W L L L W W

Carolina Panthers

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W W L L L L W W L L L L L W L
Against The Spread
W L W L L W W W L L L L L W L W

Chicago Bears

2018
Compliance With Odds
L W L W L W W W W W W L L W W L
Against The Spread
W W L W L L W W W W W L W W W W

Cincinnati Bengals

2018
Compliance With Odds
L W W L W L W L W L L W L W L L
Against The Spread
W W L W W L L L L L L L W W W W

Cleveland Browns

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L W W L L L W W L L W L L L L
Against The Spread
W W W L W L W L L W W L W W L W

Dallas Cowboys

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W W L L L L L L L W L W W W L
Against The Spread
L W L L W W L L W W W W W L W W

Denver Broncos

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L W W L L W L L L L W L L L L
Against The Spread
W L L L L W W L L W W W L L L W

Detroit Lions

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L L L L W L W W L W W W L W L
Against The Spread
L W W L W W L L L W L L W W L W

Green Bay Packers

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L L W L L L W W W W L W W W L
Against The Spread
L W L W L L W L W L L L W L W L

Houston Texans

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L L L L L L W L L W W L W L W
Against The Spread
L L L W L L W W W L W W L W W W

Indianapolis Colts

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L W L W W W W W L L L L W L W
Against The Spread
L W L L L L W W W W L L W W L W

Jacksonville Jaguars

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L L W W L L W W L L L W L L L
Against The Spread
W W L W L L L L L W L W L L W L

Kansas City Chiefs

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L W W W L W L W L L L L L L W
Against The Spread
W W W W W W W L W L W L L L L W

Los Angeles Chargers

2018
Compliance With Odds
L W W L W L L L W L W L L L W
Against The Spread
L W L L W W L W W L W W L W W

Los Angeles Rams

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W W W L L W L L L L W L L W W
Against The Spread
W W W W L L W L L L L W L L W W

Miami Dolphins

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L W W W L W W W W L W L W L W
Against The Spread
W W W L L W L L W L W W W L L L

Minnesota Vikings

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L L W L W W W W W W W W W W L
Against The Spread
W L L L W W W L W L W L L W W L

New England Patriots

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L L W W L W W W L W W L L L W
Against The Spread
W L L W W L W W W L W W L L L W

New Orleans Saints

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L L W W L W L W W W W L L L L
Against The Spread
L L W W W W W W W W L W W L L L

New York Giants

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W L W L W L W L W L L W W L L
Against The Spread
L L W L W L W L W W W W W L L W L

New York Jets

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L W W L W W W W L W L L W W W
Against The Spread
W L L L W W L L L L L W W L L L

Oakland Raiders

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L W W W W W W W L W L W L W
Against The Spread
L W L W L L L L L W L W L W L

Philadelphia Eagles

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L L L L W L W L W L W W L L W
Against The Spread
W L L L L W L W L L L W L W L W

Pittsburgh Steelers

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L L L W L W L W L L L L L L L
Against The Spread
L L W L W W W W W L L L L W W L

San Francisco 49ers

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L W L L L W L W L W W L L L W
Against The Spread
L L L W L W L L W L L L W W L L

Seattle Seahawks

2018
Compliance With Odds
W W W L L W L L L W L W W L L L
Against The Spread
L L W L W W W L W W L W W L W L

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2018
Compliance With Odds
W L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L
Against The Spread
W W L L L L W L L L W W L W L W

Tennessee Titans

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L L L L W L L L W W L W W W
Against The Spread
L W W W L L W W W L L L W W L

Washington Redskins

2018
Compliance With Odds
L L L W L L W L L L W W W L W
Against The Spread
W L W L W W W L W W L L L W L

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