Sports Prognosticating or Betting for NFL American Football, Soccer, Calcio ~
Excel Sport Bet Spreadsheet

By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sport Bet Mathematics

Published on October 24, 2000. First captured by the WayBack Machine (web.archive.org) on December 12, 2000.

• Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls, Toto1x2.xls - Excel 95 spreadsheets. A common template to use with the sports betting system presented on this page: "Sports Prognosticating or Betting, Best System".
Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls are identical spreadsheets. They have real data from the 2001 NFL season. Toto1x2.xls is a spreadsheet with real data from the 2001 Italian soccer championship Serie A. The user will maintain the spreadsheets by adding the results for his/her game in the current season.
• There are detailed steps on how to add data (on paper or in a spreadsheet) and how to do the calculations (or let the macros do the calculations: Sports Betting, Gambling Theory of Sport, Bet Systems, Software, Spreadsheets.

  • Nota bene: You download the spreadsheets as Sports, NFL2001, Toto1x2; then, you rename the exe extension to XLS. Better still, download BrightS, the integrated sports betting software — see link in the Resources section. The bet spreadsheets can be opened directly in Excel — no renaming necessary.

• Some realized that I probably have a sports betting system. Indeed, that's the case. Actually, it is how I started my gambling theory. Back in Romania, I loved to play soccer pools: 1X2. 1 represents a win for the home team; x is a tie (very rare in the American football; very common in the Italian calcio leagues); 2 represents a win for the visiting team. I needed to devise a strategy to give me the best results based on statistics. The system was best suited for the Italian soccer championships (Serie A and Serie B). The Italian soccer games have a high level of unpredictability. In most other national championships, the results are more easily predictable (the home teams win in most cases).

I will present now an abbreviated form of my system applied to the American football (specifically the NFL). I do not offer a computer program at this time. You can apply this strategy manually (pencil and paper) or use a spreadsheet.

You will keep records for each team, separated in two files (spreadsheets): record at home and record on the road. Using the overall records has much lower relevance. You will work with these two very important elements: Home Team At_home and Visiting Team On_the_road.

In this abbreviated version, you will use only the results (win/loss) and the points scored/allowed. Add the wins for the home team at-home with the losses for the visiting team on-the-road. Do the percentage. Normally, a percentage over 75% is a good indicator for a home team win. The average scores can offer additional useful info. In the case bellow, the game was very close to call: Just a slight advantage for the Home-Team. But the Visiting-Team had a realistically good chance to win.

Using my strategy for the Italian soccer leagues, I predicted 9 even 10 (out of 13) games (70% or 77%). That is, I predicted with only one prognostication sign: 1, or X, or 2. Then I would use two signs for close games (1X, or 12, or X2), even 1X2.

Predicted Result Based on Wins/Losses:

Win for Home Team: 3 (wins at home) + 2 (Visitor losses) = 5 of 8 (62%)

Win for Visiting Team: 1 (Home losses) + 2 (Road wins) = 3 of 8 (38%)

Home Team
Average points scored: 18
Average points allowed: 16

Visiting Team
Average points scored: 20
Average points allowed: 23

Predicted Score: 20 - 18 for Home-Team

The rating can be improved further by adding other parameters. How about standard deviation applied to the scores? Better still, keep a record of Win (W) and Loss (L) for every team. It is rare to see a bad team having more than 3 consecutive W, while a winning team having more than 3 consecutive Ls. Martingaling is in tall order. Read: The Best Casino Gambling Systems: Blackjack, Roulette, Limited Martingale Betting, Progressions.

I do not have all NFL data. I explained this partial system to a Miami Dolphins fan. Miami played the Detroit Lions on November 5, 2000. The line was Detroit by 2.5 points. My system showed a Detroit win 4 out of 7 = 57% and a Miami win 3 out of 7 = 43%. The game was too close to call by those stats. The average scores, however, indicated a Miami win by 3 points. In fact, Miami won by 15 points. Obviously, nobody would have bet such a big point spread. The fact is my system beat the line. Its statistical foundation had an edge over the bookies…

Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS.XLS and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet: Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet. The page also presents a very interesting fact: Repeat-winning teams from previous weeks.

Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheet, Systems, Parlays

• BrightS: Powerful Sports Betting Software.
  It bundles in a convenient system the most important pieces of sports betting software, accompanied by a visual tutorial.

• Winning Sports Betting, Soccer, Football, Parlay, Bet Systems, Software.
• Result, Performance Analysis of SPORTS XLS, Sports Betting Spreadsheets.
• Winning Combinations Inside FFG Median Bell.
• Caveats in Theory of Probability.

• NFL National Football League Games: Schedule, Results, Scores.
  ~ This page presents the schedule and game results, including average scores, in the current NFL season.
• Software to Generate 1X2 Systems Combinations for Football Soccer Pools.
  • Download Software: Sports Betting, Bet Systems, Excel Spreadsheets, Parlays, 1x2.

  • All sports betting programs and applications are incorporated in a powerful bundle:
  • BrightS: Powerful Sports Betting Software.

Comments:
: Sports Betting, Bet Soccer, Calcio, 1X2, Excel Football Spreadsheet. The system was best suited for the Italian soccer championships (Serie A and Serie B). The Italian soccer games have a high level of unpredictability. In most other national championships, the results are more easily predictable (the home teams win in most cases). I will present now an abbreviated form of my system applied to the American football (specifically the NFL). I do not offer a computer program at this time. You can apply this strategy manually (pencil and paper) or use a spreadsheet. You will keep records for each team, separated in two files (spreadsheets): record at home and record on the road. Using the overall records has much lower relevance. You will work with these two very important elements: Home Team At home and Visiting Team On the road. Add the wins for the home team at-home with the losses for the visiting team on-the-road. Do the percentage. Normally, a percentage over 75% is a good indicator for a home team win. The average scores can offer additional useful info. In the case bellow, the game was very close to call: Just a slight advantage for the Home-Team. But the Visiting-Team had a realistically good chance to win. Spreadsheet name: SPORTS.XLS (Excel format). Title of analysis: Sports Betting, Bet, Soccer, Calcio, Football Spreadsheet, Best Software. Get statistics, strategy, method, winning, combinations, win, picks, football, basketball, baseball, hockey. Theory of gambling, games is applied to parlays, team s. Learn her how to play, plays scientifically with mathematics, system, strategies. Download software, program, programs, spreadsheet, theory, formula, rule, predictions, and predicting tips. The very first betting system was based on statistics and applied to Italian soccer (calcio). The system leads to an Excel sports betting spreadsheet to play the American pro football (NFL) and also the Italian soccer Serie A calcio.

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