Probability, Odds, House Edge, Payouts, Pick-3, Fanaticism, Creation, Creationism, God Mark Twain
By Ion Saliu, Anti-fanatically At-Large
Written on October 19, 2001 (1 WE).
There are those who still oppose my interpreting the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG), despite the real facts. Actually, they even deny the validity of FFG. I know, there are bullies who love to hate me. Their only goal is to negate my ideas. Regardless of what I say (and I always do it based on logic and factual evidence), they would strongly argue for the opposite! I even heard that my software is invalid because it is in executable form (EXEs)! The only way to validate my software would be in… source code format! No kidding! What an easy way to get a programming library for free! Normal individuals can easily verify the validity or correctness of software. Just input some real data and check the output. In a word processor, for example, I can type in some text, spell check it, and print out.
As far as LotWon (command prompt) lottery software is concerned, real data consists of thousands of draws. The lottery results are available by various means, including as freeware over the Internet. Run LotWon to generate a statistical report; the number frequency, for example. Count the numbers manually in the real results file. Count very carefully and precisely, as LotWon does! Then check the manual count against the report generated by LotWon. The two counts should be absolutely equal. And they always are, when the testing is done by honest people.
Some are honestly puzzled by the results of the Fundamental Formula of Gambling. If there are N possible outcomes and each outcome has a probability p=1/N, why aren't the frequencies equal? Shouldn't every outcome show up once in N tries? I was about to say it will never happen. It would be wrong mathematically. Let's take the simplest game of chance: Coin tossing. There are 2 possible outcomes, with an equal probability of ½. P(heads)=P(tails)=1/2. The probability to get 'heads' AND 'tails' in 2 (N=2) trials is: ½ x ½ = ¼ (25%). Therefore the event is not impossible. Reality confirms it. Toss a coin 1000 times. In 25% of the cases, there will be 250 (1/4) tosses in the sequence 'heads-tails'. (Of course, as in any probability phenomenon, the figures mean closely around.)
If we go back to the pick-3 game, I am afraid the probability of getting every pick-3 combination in 1000 draws is virtually zero! The probability of the combined event cannot be expressed in numbers or words. It would be the result of multiplying 1/1000 by itself 1000 times!!! The result would be even farther in the Universe for lotto games. Multiply 1/C(N,M) by itself C(N,M) times!!!!
Reality validates the Fundamental Formula of Gambling. The random outcomes repeat more often after a number of trials equal to or less than the probability median. The probability median is calculated by FFG for a degree of certainty DC=50%. That's why the combination frequency is biased in every lottery that ever was or will be.
Here are some more puzzling facts in the pick-3 lottery. I used LotWon to arrive to the facts. The results can be checked manually, against real lottery draws.
The random combinations strongly follow the tendency “imposed” by FFG. Getting every possible combination in N trials is impossible for all intents and purposes in lottery games. Or, if you will, the event is possible but improbable. Such probability is lower than the probability of the Earth colliding with the Moon.
The Moon and the Earth will collide for sure, if we don't mind waiting a couple of billion years. The time will come when the solar system will collapse inwards, at its center of gravity. No gods can stop that, for it's Almighty Number that burns and freezes the EverythingNothing. No gods were able to stop the massacre of September 11, 2001. They had failed even more lamentably in World War II. But this is not another form of religion (Numerus Dogma? NOT!). Don't worry about a numerical form of jihad, even if I kick butt when fanatics fight my numbers. Mark Twain was serious when he said that stopping all holy wars would be possible only if banning all religions. Sorry, brilliant Mark! Banning has never worked, never will! Only Reason will defeat intolerance and fanaticism. Humans can reach Reason only by way of free choice. Free reasoning may be the characteristic of a new self-aware species, not this one.
The greatest achievement of America in human history is the separation of state and religion. That single achievement is most responsible for the great achievements of America eventually. It made possible the great achievement of checks and balances. What checks and balances, when a god is involved? How hard was it for John F. Kennedy to become President, even though he worshipped a god going to the same type of worship place (church) as the majority? He barely made it. A second-tier candidate (Vice-President) didn't make it in 2000 AD, grossly because his god went to a different worship place (synagogue) than the majority's god. A god going to a mosque will never make it for any candidate, any time soon, in America, or India, or Russia, or Israel... The "cosmic odds" are probably worse than for the 2000 AD - in truth, Common Era, which starts with Octavianus Augustus tribunicia potestas - American candidate who clearly showed he was too serious (and overwhelmed by real social problems to be solved) to believe in the illusion named divinity. Senator Bradley said in an emergency-room-kind of voice that he really believed in god. “Really?”, the free media reporters questioned him. What odds? He still lost before getting in. The mosque candidate still can't get in. He'll be jihadded at the announcement ceremony (probably by...crusaders). No “she-mosque” candidate can even think about getting in. She'd be jihadded before the announcement, probably by her own son. You know, boys who attend mosque have free hand to beating, even killing, their own mothers! Hence the expression "Oh, boy!"
Another great thought from Mark Twain:
"God is a comedian playing to an audience that is afraid to laugh."
It doesn't get any more eloquent than that. It becomes so easy to imagine religion as a huge theatre hall, jam-packed with spectators. A big actor is on the huge stage. He plays comedy. Big time comedy! Things like: "A few score hundred years ago, I was tripped up by a dinosaur skeleton. I spat over the cosmic dust. I made it mud. Then I modeled the clay and I created you. Yeah, right! You are my pottery, needed to move the life-giving water from place to place. Anybody here working for 'Darwin, Inc.'?” One would expect roaring “ha-ha-ha's". Yet, the audience is as frightened as watching a Sophocles' tragedy. The “spectators” were strongly programmed at the time they were kids. The emphasis was strongly on Fear, compared to Survival. A frightening dragon was created in children's minds. “If you are not believing, you will be severely punished! You will live in hell forever!” That's utmost Fear. The Survival has a weak meaning. “If you are believing, you will live the eternal life!” For a child, the future is eternal. Life is perceived as eternal. A child never sees an end to life. The promise of “eternal life” is superfluous for a child. Implanting the seed at an early age makes it extremely hard to weed out later. But it makes it so easy for suicidal commitment to "holy" wars!
PS
There are those who send me empty emails, except for the concept: "Final notice!" I remember one was signed "God"! Can they be more substantive? What comedy clubs do they represent? I used to be a comedian. I did enjoy success. There are people in this world (at least on both sides of the Atlantic), who described my humor as the most hilarious they ever experienced. Yet, as a comedian, I was always "frightened" not to be interpreted as making fun of ... Marx! God didn't mind my humor at all. I remember, I played a very successful mime act of the creation of Adam and Eve. The show was dynamite, although X-rated. You know, the "members" are part of the creation…
IS
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