American Football (NFL) Results - Week Prognostication, Predictions
By Ion Saliu, Founder of Sports Betting Mathematics
Written on October 30, 2001 and later.
The results of week #7 in NFL compared to the prognostication of the Sport.XLS bet spreadsheet:
As I said before, the expected correctness rate is around 2 out of 3 games.
I used incorrect data for one game, however: EAGLES RAIDERS. I failed to input one win on the road for the Oakland Raiders (23-18 at Indianapolis Colts). The final predicted score should read 22.8 22.3 (Eagles by 0.5, not by 3.0). This game was also an anomaly in the sense that the Raiders had the advantage in the win category: 4 to 2! That's because they perform worse at home than on the road! It's the kind of game that's no-no from a pro football betting perspective. Unless, of course, the savvy player uses more sophisticated parameters (standard deviation, winning and losing streaks, etc.)
I present now the prognostication of SPORTS.xls for NFL Week 8. This time I include the win parameters as well. How to interpret a line:
The home team is designated as 1, the visiting football team as 2. In the case above, Steelers is team 1, Ravens is team 2. Team 1 is favored 5 to 1 in the wins category. In other words, the odds in favor of a Steelers' win are 5 to 1. Of course, the odds against a Steelers win are 1 to 5. A most curious game is :
It is very rare to find a totally equitable game, such as this one. Since a tie is also very rare in the NFL, I preferred the term undecided. This game is a perfect coin toss
There is nothing I can do for you, bookies! Nor can I do anything for pay-for sports betting services. A simple spreadsheet is, at least, as effective as the mountain of (not so necessary) data the pay-for betting services offer.
Read a detailed analysis of the performance of SPORTS Excel bet spreadsheet and how to take advantage of the sports betting spreadsheet:
Home1 Visitor2 1 2 Points1 Points2 Prognostication
Steelers Ravens 5 1 23.6 11.9 Steels by 11.7
In the final predicted score category: Steelers 23.6, Ravens 11.9 (Steelers by 11.7).
Home1 Visitor2 1 2 Points1 Points2 Prognostication
Redskins Seahawks 3 3 19.5 19.5 Undecided
Analysis of the results of the football betting spreadsheet.
Resources in Sports Betting: Theory, Mathematics, Excel Spreadsheet, Systems, Parlays
See a comprehensive directory of the pages and materials on the subject of sports betting, software, systems, and parlays.
Specific software for sports betting
~ Sports.xls, NFL2001.xls, Toto1x2.xls: Templates in Excel spreadsheet software to use with the sports betting system presented on the pages: "Sports Prognosticating or Betting: Best System" and "Analysis of the results of SPORTS.XLS, the sports betting spreadsheet";
~ BetUS, intelligent random combination generator for sports betting, the American way; the player bets on either the favorite team to win by more than the point spread, or the underdog to lose by less than the point spread;
~ AMBET, is much like BetUS but with a twist! You can add W or L at the end of a team name; add W if the team was a winner in the previous game (week); add L if the team lost the last game (week);
~ TEAMS, combination generator for sports betting; the player selects any number of games, then the number of outcomes.
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