Wizard of Odds, Lizard of Odds, Wizard of Vegas: Gambler's Fallacy, Fraud, Schizophrenic Idiot Paid by Casinos

Posted on July 22, 2000; later updates.
First captured by the WayBack Machine (web.archive.org) on September 1, 2000.

In Reply to: Roulette, Blackjack Systems: Wizard of Odds Gambling Challenge, Test in Casinos posted by Ion Saliu on July 22, 2000.

: Chip, why didn't you put "Don't gamble, you never win!" as the headline of your famous New York Times advertisement for the Powerplay roulette system? BRRRRRRRRAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Secondly, after making the case on “gambler's fallacy”, how can you still claim you are ahead $20,000 at baccarat?! (By the way, is that enough for the house your partner just bought?) And why do you still keep your name secret, since you'll be losing anyway? The casinos hate winners, but they love losers big time!

: I wouldn't give "The Lizard of Odds" a dime, even I were facing the firing squad. Even his name is stolen from a 1970's TV show!!! Pay him $1,000 to test my system??? That is, give my gambling systems away??? Are you nuts? And — to whom? To a gambling “authority” who never heard of the probability formula of M successes in N trials? An "authority" who sustains that tossing 200 heads in a row has the same chance as getting one heads? Indeed, the probability p of an event is always the same. But there is another fundamental parameter of probability theory: the degree of certainty DC. The degree of certainty always increases with the increase in the number of trials N.

• Tossing 200 heads in a row (or missing 200 consecutive heads) is 1/2 ^ 200 = 1/(1_followed_by_60_digits). For the Wizard/Lizard of Odds, that number is still equal to 1/2.
• The event is not impossible as nothing is impossible in the Universe. But it would take longer than the life of the Universe for Lizard of Odds to witness the fruition of "his event"!
• No wonder he changed his "royalty name" to Wizard of Vegas. Them casinos pay him for his "brilliant analyses" of gambling fallacy, such as losing 200 consecutive coin tosses! Furthermore, the online bandits (read: gambling sites) pay handsomely The Grand Casino Lizard for his deceitful reviews!

There are losing streaks and there are winning streaks — that's mathematics. The casinos and many gambling authors, however, grossly disregard probability theory. They established a "law" that "assures" very long losing streaks for the player — but never for the gambling establishment. Don't give me that bull — the gambler's fallacy! If there is honesty, things should closely resemble the calculations of my probability software Streaks.exe. There should be also a reversed gambler's fallacy, Lady Chance says — but Wizard of Odds curses when he hears that!

Let's run Streaks for 20 consecutive heads in 1000000 (one million) coin tosses –

Let's increase the parameters; say, 30 consecutive heads in 1000000000 (one billion) coin flips –

Don't even think about 200 consecutives! Contemporary computers can't do it… reasonably!

• Here is in part what "The Wizard of Odds" (Lizard of Odds is more accurate) wrote to me on Sunday, November 15, 1998:

• "Hi Ion:
  You have a very interesting, unique, and informative page and I would be honored to include it on my hotlist. I was especially interested in your comments on Internet casinos and your assertion that the probability of winning is negatively correlated with bet size. I think it would be a very worthwhile project to write up your research in this area, it is something that numerous people want to know. This is the sort of thing that should merit grant money..."

Later Notes

Remember, he is a casino consultant, on the payroll of the casinos! (Incidentally, at that time, Mike Shackleford, the self-proclaimed Wizard of Odds, was also working for the U.S. Social Security Administration.) It was the casino executives who requested that Lizard dropped my web site from his hot links. The Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG) that I discovered and made available to gamblers is the most frightening opponent to the casinos.

FFG is public enemy number one! Don't even mention it! Don't let many gamblers know about it! If people have already learned, then go directly on the attack against the… formulator! As a matter of fact, even a casino chairman (of MGM Grand) stormed my bulletin board warning gamblers to stay away from systems based on the Fundamental Formula of Gambling (FFG). Chances are them FFG gamblers will be thrown out of the casino (according to Mafia-type of laws ruling Nevada gambling).

That's the main reason why "Wizard of Odds" made an about-face. FFG is public enemy number one, as far as the casinos are concerned.

• Michael Shackleford always fought publicly any gambling systems. Secretly, however, he has always promoted his own gambling systems. The Wizard of Vegas published (2013) a book where he sells what he calls “the best gambling systems”: "Gambling 102: The Best Strategies for All Casino Games"! How about that for schizophrenia?! Say nothing of the fact that "The Wizard of Odds" pirates the fundamentals of my gambling systems, where the streaks rule, because only the streaks represent mathematics!

Ultimately, more often than not, individuals of this type have their own gambling or lottery systems — albeit they publicly fight the validity of such systems! Their main concern is to keep the attention away from Ion Saliu's creations. What a curious disease jealousy is when etched on a bloated ego and seeded in a deep complex of inferiority! It is a pathetic mixture of hypocrisy and schizophrenia!

• How about... gods and od(d)s? Michael Shackleford/Wizard of Odds/Wizard of Vegas (his "Jerusalem"!) is a cult afflict and a mystic. He participates in a health-hazard cult known as the "Burning Man" (BM): A gathering of weirdos who subject their bodies to the harshest conditions of the Nevada desert. The first piece of advice the would-be cult followers get is "How to survive the Burning Man"!
• Wizard even phones to God while he's burning his brains in the hot sands! Maybe it is the word of god when he talks about "topics" such as "200 consecutive heads has the same chance as '1 heads'... in a row"!
• You might want to read Lizard's tales in his cuckoo nest of cult afflicts: Wizard of Odds is a Burning Man.
• “… I stood in a line of about five people to talk to god. […] A young woman of about 25 asked me, "What is the quickest way to enlightenment?" […] After all of this there was just one guy talking to god so I formed a new line. […] Then I picked up the phone. God came on a few minutes later. I said "Hello god, it's me Mike [THEE Wizard of Odds]." I hope you guys get the reference. God didn't seem to. Anyway, I went right into the big questions like "What is the meaning of life?" and "Which religion comes closest to the real truth?" God just gave some ambiguous answers that seemed Jesus-like parables at the time. I walked away feeling confused and unfulfilled.”
• The Lizard of [G]Od[d]s got help from some of his fellas. A “pragmatic” cult fellow gave him a parabola-kind of advice: “2) Committed coin flip decision: Assign one decision to heads and the other to tails. Repeat to yourself that you will follow whatever the coin tells you to do.”
• To that piece of advice, a kinduva standup comedian made a humorous reference to Wizard of Odds' probability “formulas of 200 heads”:
• “e.g. heads = happiness; tails=badness (tailspin, etc.)
  God learnt from Wizard that you should expect '200 consecutive tails' (i.e. misfortunate events one after another) if you don't attend Burning Man with a fantasy 25-year-old naked gal…lol”
• And, ultimately, Wizard had to prove… wizardry (in 2019): "I feel nothing in math is a coincidence or random. There are patterns in everything, but sometimes we can't find an exact expression for them...yet. Everything seems to boil down to some function of pi, e, or prime numbers. Some, maybe me, would go so far as to claim it is evidence of a higher power."
• The same standup guy made another humorous reference, this time to the same... higher power: "God dont play dice with the universe. God dont care about our math." - Einstein, Wizard of the Universe (WOTU).

"I received a phone call
From one who claimed was tall.
Then, he cursed me even worse
For my gambling on the horse."

Read also similar casino reaction towards yours truly, and gambling mathematics in general:

• Roulette System, Threat by Casino Chairman of MGM Grand named John Schroder - 3/05/2001.
• Response to Threat, Attack from Casino Chairman, Gambling Writer from Ion Saliu - 3/05/2001.
• Casino Chairman's Threats Against Saliu Gambling System Players by John Schroder - 3/06/2001.
• Anti-gambler Advice: John Patrick, Casino Mole, Conspirator Jackal (in truth, John Patrick, gambling author paid by casinos) - 3/07/2001.
• James Bond Roulette Systems: Bet on Two Dozens or Columns, 2-to-1 - 3/06/2001.
• Doctrine of Maturity of Chances, Wizard of Odds, Gambling Systems Duplicity.
• Casino chairman recommends two-to-one (2-1) roulette systems by John Schroder - 3/07/2001.

• Wizard of Odds / Wizard of Vegas: Gambler's Fallacy, Schizophrenic Idiot Paid by Casinos.
• Gambling Formula, Randomness, Norman Wattenberger, Abuse of Laws, Narcissism of Bogus Complaints - 4/13/2000.
• New American Psycho: Don Schlesinger of Blackjack Fame.
• Adverse Reaction to Online Post on Odds Probability Calculator for Lottery, Gambling.
• Chip Criminal, Powerplay Roulette Casino Gambling Systems about gambler "Chip" Frank Accardi - 8/15/2000.
• Gambling Mathematics Proves Deception of Blackjack Card-Counting Systems.

Read Ion Saliu's first book in print: Probability Theory, Live!
~ Founded on valuable mathematical discoveries with a wide range of scientific applications, including probability theory applied to casino, gambling, systems, blackjack, roulette, mathematics, gambler's fallacy.

• Theory, Mathematics of Roulette Systems, Strategies, Software.
• Super Roulette Strategy: The Best Winning Roulette Systems, Strategies.
• An inventory of free and outrageously priced roulette systems.
• Demise of Gambler's Fallacy, Reversed Gambler's Fallacy.

• Probability, Odds to Win Roulette in Various Number of Spins: To Be Ahead and Quit.
• Roulette Systems on Wheel Position, Sectors, Slots Birthday Paradox.

• Download Roulette Gambling Systems, Software.

Posts in the same thread:

• Wizard of Odds: Gambling Challenge in Casinos, Expensive Testing Ion Saliu 7/22/2000.
• Gambler Exposed Wizard of Odds' Incompetence in Casino Gambling Matters Bob 7/23/2000.